Monday, December 16, 2024

Willy Adames is MLB’s top free-agent shortstop. Could his high value land him a $200M deal?

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Brewers shortstop Willy Adames hit 32 homers and drove in 112 runs, each single-season career highs in 2024. He’s ranked fifth in Yahoo Sports’ top 50 free agents. (Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports)

If you put a list together of the top shortstops in baseball, after Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Bobby Witt Jr. and Trea Turner, you can make a strong case that Willy Adames is the fifth-best shortstop in the game. And it’s not wild to think he might be the second-best free agent on the position player side available this winter behind Juan Soto.

Adames put together his best campaign for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2024. Adames had a .251/.331/.462 slashline with a career high in doubles (33), hits (153), home runs (32), runs (92), runs batted in (112), walks (74) and stolen bases (21).

After the Tampa Bay Rays traded him to the Brewers in 2021, Adames turned himself into a true middle-of-the-order bat and a dangerous presence for Milwaukee and it showed in the production.

Adames is one of the best power threats at shortstop in the game right now. Since he came into the league in 2018, only Lindor (188 homers) has more homers than Adames (150) in that span among shortstops. And he’s also proven the ability to be a premium run producer, ranking fourth at the position in RBI in the same span.

While advanced defensive metrics suggest the seven-year veteran took a step back (-16 DRS), in the two previous seasons, Adames rated as one of the best defenders in the sport (combined 17 DRS in ’22 and ’23). So a return to that level in 2025 is possible. Adames’ range, arm and athleticism could make him a solid defender at second or third base.

If there’s a hole in Adames’ game, it’s that he doesn’t get on base at a high clip. Over his seven seasons, Adames has a .322 on-base percentage. But as he’s gotten older and tapped into more power, Adames has been more selective, setting career highs in walks each of the past two seasons with 71 in ’23 and 74 in ’24.

Adames’ best asset might be the ability to lead a clubhouse. You’ll never hear a bad word about Adames and whether it was Kevin Cash, Craig Counsell or Pat Murphy, managers love his leadership style and his ability to bring people together.

Jackson Chourio is going to be a star in the big leagues for a long time. The man charged with helping one of the game’s top prospects was Adames. Chourio told Yahoo Sports last spring that he was sitting right next to Adames in the clubhouse to learn from him and as Chourio had an outstanding rookie campaign, that wisdom appeared to have paid off.

When it comes to what the market for Adames looks like, he has the benefit of being the only marquee shortstop available this winter. Unlike three years ago when there was an influx of high-end shortstops in free agency with the likes of Trevor Story, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Carlos Correa all on the market. Adames will have the top of the market to himself with the second-best option at the position being Ha-Seong Kim.

For years, the Dodgers have been interested in Adames and even with Mookie Betts moving back to the infield, Adames would make plenty of sense in L.A. Other teams that could make a run at Adames include the Giants and Braves.

If Adames changes positions that could open even more potential suitors.

Adames’ deal will likely be in the ballpark of Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs in 2022. The belief around baseball is that Adames’ popularity among teams could push that number toward $200 million.

When you include the intangibles that make him a great fit off the field, Adames might end up being the best value in this year’s free-agent class.

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