It may have taken until the end of November, but signs of winter are finally arriving across parts of Ontario this week. Much colder temperatures, blustery conditions, and rounds of snow could leave some areas dealing with the first dose of winter driving, and shoveling, before the week ends.
While it’s still uncertain just how much snow falls, and the exact locations it hits, drivers will want to be prepared for any changing and deteriorating conditions. Especially after a fall season that could go down as one of the warmest on record across the province.
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Signs of winter arrive as November ends
A significant pattern change will open the door to winter weather this week, as parts of southern Ontario will see its first chance for accumulating snow, and lake-effect snow squalls, as well.
The first system on Monday will bring light rain to southern Ontario, and snow to the north, with the chance for a brief period of freezing rain and ice pellets in between.
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By Monday afternoon and evening, the light rain will spread across southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). For areas to the north of the GTA, there is the chance for a brief period of snow, as well as slick freezing rain before the precipitation changes over to just rain.
Across the Ottawa Valley, there’s also the chance for a wintry mix, including freezing rain and ice pellets, later Monday before the changeover to light rain by early Tuesday morning.
Tuesday will be the first transition day as a front sweeps across the Great Lakes, another rain event for the GTA becomes trickier for central and eastern sections, where snow becomes a factor.
Rounds of lake-effect snow
On Wednesday, the first wave of Arctic air from the Prairies will try to organize some lake-effect bands of snow off lakes Superior and Huron, and Georgian Bay. Organization will be tough, however, due to an incoming storm stateside that will disrupt the wind pattern. Still, the chance is there.
Thursday brings the biggest question mark as to which areas will see snow. The track of the incoming storm is more likely to impact Montreal, Que., and eastern Ontario, though models are showing signs of the storm moving north soon enough to impact parts of the GTA, as well.
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Even though the swath of snow may be light across the 401 corridor, the first light snow event in the GTA always takes some re-familiarization when it comes to driving. There are likely a lot of drivers that don’t have winter tires on yet, either.
Regardless of the track of Thursday’s storm, it will draw in another wave of Arctic air, which will stick around through the weekend. All the Great Lakes will be producing lake-effect snow for multiple days as December arrives.
There is good confidence in this multi-day, lake-effect snow event, but it won’t be widespread and will target more of the snowbelt regions.
