(Bloomberg) — The yuan’s recent rally has limited room to extend as China’s economic woes may discourage the repatriation of dollar holdings following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, according to some analysts.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Chinese companies’ foreign-asset holdings have been in focus amid expectations that lower interest rates in the US will bring some of those investments back home. There’s growing skepticism over the extent of that unwind given China’s economic woes, the risk of higher tariffs and a still-wide yield gap with the US, suggesting little upside for the yuan.
China will not see a huge surge in repatriation as it will take “numerous Fed cuts before the yield spread moves back in its favor,” said Lynn Song, Greater China chief economist at ING Bank NV. A stabilization of sentiment and fundamentals in China could help a larger recovery, but currently there aren’t “strong signs of that,” he added.
While the yuan has strengthened more than 2% against the dollar this quarter on Fed easing bets, the gains are smaller than most regional peers. Estimates on Chinese companies’ foreign stockpile vary, ranging from $220 billion to $2 trillion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has pushed back against Eurizon SLJ Capital’s warning that FX flows will be like an “avalanche” for the yuan.
Skepticism over the scale of money that could be converted back into yuan has grown, as the weakness in China’s economy limits onshore investment opportunities. Analysts are bracing for more pain ahead, with Bloomberg Economics saying activity data this week will likely show the recovery lost more momentum in August.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. expects the yuan to steadily decline from current levels toward 7.17 by the year-end on tariff risks. The onshore yuan closed Friday 0.2% weaker at 7.10.
Much will also depend on the outcome of the US election — Donald Trump has argued for a tariff of more than 60% on Chinese goods, while Kamala Harris’ China policies are expected to be more in line with President Joe Biden’s approach.
“The bar for meaningful unwinding of existing dollar positions is high,” with conversion rates easing to 21%, from 50% more than two years ago, Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a Sept. 4 note. The risk of significant yuan depreciation remains in a US “Republican win scenario,” he said.
Here are the key Asian economic data this week:
-
Monday, Sept. 9: China PPI and CPI, Taiwan trade data, Singapore foreign reserves, Japan GDP and trade data
-
Tuesday, Sept. 10: China trade data, Australia consumer confidence, New Zealand home sales, Philippines trade data
-
Wednesday, Sept. 11: South Korea unemployment data
-
Thursday, Sept. 12: India CPI and industrial output, Hong Kong industrial output, Japan PPI, New Zealand food prices and Pakistan rate decision
-
Friday, Sept. 13: Thailand gross international reserves, Japan industrial output, Sri Lanka GDP, New Zealand manufacturing PMI, India trade data
–With assistance from Iris Ouyang.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.